Growth rate of population associated with high terrorism incidents in society

Abstract

Abstract. What is the growth rate of population that maximizes fatalities from the terrorist incidents? This is a fundamental problem in studies of terrorism and political violence. The paper confronts this question here by analyzing demographic and socioeconomic factors causing and sustaining terrorism in society. Firstly, the present study suggests non-linear effects between confirmed fatalities for terrorist incident and rates of growth of population. Secondly, empirical analyzes and optimization reveal that a growth rate of population of about 3.6% maximizes the lethality due to terrorist incidents in society. This high growth rate of population associated with terrorism is in some problematic regions such as Iraq, Mali, Sudan, etc. Overall, then, the ethnicity and/or religion are illusory causes of terrorism, because they are not an environmental stressor per se. Instead, a distal cause of terrorism may be a critical demographic mass and high population growth that, in combination with socioeconomic issues and political instability, can induce terrorism as a result. Finally, some socioeconomic policies are suggested to enhance conditions of people to reduce this social issue over the long run.

Keywords. Terrorism, Population, Demographic factors, Neo-Malthusian approaches, Population growth, Income inequality, Human development index, Political stability.

JEL. I24, I30, J10, N30, R23, Q56, Z10.