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Financial and Econometric Study of the Sustainability and Evaluation of Scenarios of Reforms for the Civil Regime of Moroccan
Abstract
Abstract. The decline in the demographic ratio corollary to the maturity of the regime and in particular its generosity raise the question of the medium-and long-term financial sustainability of the civil pension scheme of the Moroccan pension fund. This article studies the financial sustainability of civil regimes and evaluates the options for reforms envisaged by the government mainly parametric reform. In this framework, an actuarial and financial model based on demographic assumptions and macroeconomic parameters is constructed and used to analyze the financial sustainability of the status quo regime and the projected regime and also to test the parametric reform. We also use econometric tests such as non-stationarity, causality and cointegration between technical recipes and technical expenditures to empirically evaluate the sustainability of civil scheme of pensions. This paper concludes that the parametric reform of our civil pay-as-you-go system is unsustainable. It would therefore be in favor of other remedial measures and reform strategies to improve and enhance the financial sustainability of the fund, such as the model based on the addition of a funded pillar, and unification of all funds in a single integrated system.
Keywords. PAYG, Financial sustainability, Econometric tests, Model actuarial, Parametric reform, Civil pension scheme of the Moroccan pension fund.
JEL. C12, C13, C58, C53, J1, G22, F65.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1453/ter.v3i4.1104
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