Assessing Recent Turkey’s Foreign Trade Performance

Mustafa ÇAKIR, Turgay GEÇER

Abstract


Abstract. Turkey`s foreign trade performance compare with its own past and with its major trading partnersincreased significantly over the last decade. This increase seems related to the growth trend of exports by geographical destinations. Recent global financial and economic crises and worsening geo–political environment challenged Turkey’s foreign trade as well. Turkey’s foreign trade increased nearly by 3–fold through exporting the risky countriessince 2003.The aim of this article is to examine Turkey’s foreign trade by focusing on increased exposures of export destinationsfor the period of 2003–2013. In this study, export destinations’ rating are used to calculate export exposure. The results suggest that finding new markets especially in neighborand least developed countries caused new risks for Turkey, increasing export exposure. This exposure can be seen in the deterioration of sovereign rating of export destinations, from A+/A to BBB. This seems to suggest that even though Turkey have increased foreign trade with the new markets, this exposure should be covered by well–designed policies as Turkey suffers from foreign trade deficit continuously. Turkey should attempt on policy reform which would increase its competitiveness in export markets and productsand thus enable it to increase its ranking in the World trade..

Keywords. Foreign trade, Export exposure, Sovereign rating.

JEL. O52, F1, G24.


Full Text:


References


Akat, A.S., & Yazgan, E. (2013). Observations on Turkey’s recent economic performance, Atlantic Economic Journal, 41(1), 1–27. doi. 10.1007/s11293-012-9353-z

Akin, Ç., & Köse, M.A. (2008). Changing nature of North-South linkages: Stylized facts and explanations. Journal of Asian Economics 19, 1-28. doi. 10.1016/j.asieco.2007.12.002

Aydın F., Saygılı, H., & Saygılı, M. (2007). Empirical Analysis of Structural Change in Turkish Exports, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research and Monetary Policy Department Working Paper, 07/08, Ankara.

Athukorala, P.C., & Yamashita, N. (2006). Production fragmentation and trade integration: East Asia in a global context, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 17, 233-256. doi. 10.1016/j.najef.2006.07.002

Babacan, M. (2011). Whither an axis shift: A perspective from Turkey’s foreign trade, Insight Turkey, 13(1), 129–157.

Cambazoğlu, B., & Karaalp, H. (2012). Trends in Turkey’s terms of trade from 1982 to 2011, Procedia–Social and Behavioral Sciences, 58, 1228–1238. doi. 10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.09.1105

Erkan, B. (2014). Product and market diversification in Turkey’s foreign trade, International Journal of Advances in Management and Economics, 3(1), 01–15.

Evenett, S. (227). EU commercial policy in a multipolar trading system, Intereconomics 42, 143-155. doi. 10.1007%2Fs10272-007-0217-8

Goldfarb, D. (2006). Too Many Eggs in One Basket? Evaluating Canada’s Need to Diversify Trade, C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, 236, 1–28.

Gros, D., & Selçuki, C. (2013). The Changing Structure of Turkey’s Trade and Industrial Competitiveness: Implications for the EU, Centre for European Policy Studies, Working Paper, 03.

Hepatkan, E. (2007). Türkiye’nin dış ticaretinin gelir yönlü analizi, Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Dış Ticaret Politikaları, 1(2), 79–112.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2014). The World Economic Outlook (WEO). Washington, D.C., 2014.

İzmen, Ü., & Yılmaz, K. (2009). Turkey’s Recent Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Performance. Tusaid-Koc University Economic Research Forum Working Papers, 0902.

Kantar, E., Deviren, B., & Keskin, M. (2011). Hierarchical structure of Turkey’s foreign trade, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 390(20), 3454–3476. doi. 10.1016/j.physa.2011.05.004

Özcan, M. (2008). Harmonizing Foreign Policy: Turkey, the European Union and the Middle East, United Kingdom: Ashgate, 2008.

Özlale, U., & Cunedioglu, H. (2011). Turkey’s Export Performance 2: Diversification, Competitiveness and Adaptation at Sector Level. Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (Tepav), Ankara.

Samen, S. (2010). A Primer on Export Diversification: Key Concepts, Theoretical Underpinnings and Empirical Evidence, Growth and Crisis Unit World Bank Institute, 1–23.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) (2012). Energy Statistics of Non-OECD Countries, Paris: France.

Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) (2014). International Selected Economic Indicators, Ankara: Turkey.

Turk Eximbak (2014). Statistics, Istanbul: Turkey.

World Bank (2014a). World Development Indicators (WDI). Washington, D.C.: USA.

World Bank (2014b). Focus Note.Washington, D.C.: USA.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1453/ter.v2i4.489

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Bookmark and Share


.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Turkish Economic Review - Turk. Econ. Rev. - TER - www.kspjournals.org

ISSN: 2149-0414

Editor: [email protected]   Secretarial: [email protected]   Istanbul - Turkey.

Copyright © KSP Library