Fiscal versus Monetary Policy in the 1960s

Abstract

Abstract. In this lecture, Milton Friedman reviews the role of fiscal and monetary policies on the course of the U.S. business cycle, during several episodes from 1961 to 1969. He relates these developments to shifts in contemporary popular and scientific opinion about the determinants of the business cycle. In each episode of expansion or contraction, he shows that monetary policy – in the sense of changes in the rate of growth of the quantity of money – was at least as important as fiscal policy in determining the pace of economic activity and the rate of inflation, and always dominated when these policies were moving in opposite directions. During the lecture, Friedman makes several digressions to explain the variability of the lag in effect of monetary policy, the reason why interest rates are a poor guide to the stance of monetary policy, and why the downward-sloping liquidity preference function is a poor model that fails to comport with the real world. He also explains why tax increases are not necessarily contractionary, and why tax decreases are not necessarily expansionary.

Keywords. Quantity theory, Monetary policy.

JEL. E50, E53, E63.