Mathematical Analysis of Income Per Capita in the United Kingdom
Abstract. Industrial Revolution did not boost economic growth and the growth of population even in the United Kingdom, the centre of this revolution. On the contrary, from around 1850, economic growth and the growth of population started to be diverted to slower trajectories. The new trend describing the growth of income per capita (Gross Domestic Product per capita, i.e. GDP/cap) is now analysed using Maddison’s data. Two numerical solutions and two analytical solutions of the differential equation describing the growth rate of income per capita are presented. It is demonstrated yet again that even strong fluctuations in the growth rate do not change the shape of growth trajectories. Thus, contrary to the common misconception, even strong fluctuations in the growth rate cannot be used as the evidence of the existence of Malthusian stagnation because they do not change the mechanism of growth. Such strong fluctuations can at best produce only small and negligible ripples in growth trajectories. Our analysis shows also that the current growth of income per capita in the UK follows an unsustainable trajectory.
Keywords. United Kingdom, Income per capita, Growth rate, Future growthJEL. A10, B41, C02, C12, C20, C50, O10.
Ashraf, Q.H. (2009). Essays on Deep Determinants of Comparative Economic Development. Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence.
Biraben, J-N. (1980). An Essay Concerning Mankind's Evolution. Population, Selected Papers, December.
Clark, C. (1968). Population Growth and Land Use. New York, NY: St Martin's Press.
Cook, R.C. (1960). World Population Growth. Law and Contemporary Problems, 25(3), 379-388.
Durand, J.D. (1974). Historical Estimates of World Population: An Evaluation. Analytical and Technical Reports, Number 10. University of Pennsylvania, Population Center.
Floud, D. & McCloskey, D.N. (1994). The Economic History of Britain since 1700. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Gallant, R.A. (1990). The Peopling of Planet Earth: Human Growth through the Ages. New York, NY: Macmillan Publishing Company.
Galor, O. (2005a). From stagnation to growth: Unified Growth Theory. In P. Aghion & S. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth (pp. 171-293). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Galor, O. (2005b). The demographic transition and the emergence of sustained economic growth. Journal of the European Economic Association, 3(2-3), 494-504. doi. 10.1162/jeea.2005.3.2-3.494
Galor, O. (2007). Multiple growth regimes – Insights from unified growth theory. Journal of Macroeconomics, 29(3), 470-475. doi. 10.1016/j.jmacro.2007.06.007
Galor, O. (2008a). Comparative Economic Development: Insight from Unified Growth Theory. [Retrieved from].
Galor, O. (2008b). Economic Growth in the Very Long Run. In: Durlauf, S.N. and Blume, L.E., Eds., The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, New York. doi. 10.1057/9780230226203.0434
Galor, O. (2008c). Comparative Economic Development: Insight from Unified Growth Theory. [Retrieved from].
Galor, O. (2010). The 2008 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture—Comparative Economic Development: Insights from Unified Growth Theory. International Economic Review, 51(1), 1-44. doi. 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2009.00569.x
Galor, O. (2011). Unified Growth Theory. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
Galor, O. (2012a). Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Economic Development. [Retrieved from].
Galor, O. (2012b). The Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences. Cliometrica, 6(1), 1-28. doi. 10.1007/s11698-011-0062-7
Galor, O. (2012c). Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Economic Development. [Retrieved from].
Galor, O. & Moav, O. (2002). Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1133-1191. doi. 10.1162/003355302320935007
Haub, C. (1995). How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth? Population Today, February.
Kapitza, S.P. (2006). Global population blow-up and after. Hamburg: Global Marshall Plan Initiative.
Kremer, M. (1993). Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 681–716. doi. 10.2307/2118405
Lehmeyer, J. (2004). Mauritius: Historical demographical data of the whole country. [Retrieved from].
Livi-Bacci, M. (1997). A Concise History of World Population (2nd ed.). Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishers.
Maddison, A. (2001). The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: OECD.
Maddison, A. (2010). Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD. [Retrieved from].
Mauritius, (2015). Demographics of Mauritius. [Retrieved from].
McEvedy, C. & Jones, R. (1978). Atlas of World Population History. Middlesex, England: Penguin.
Nielsen, R.W. (2014). Changing the Paradigm. Applied Mathematics, 5, 1950-1963. doi. 10.4236/am.2014.513188
Nielsen, R.W. (2015a). Unified Growth Theory contradicted by the GDP/cap data. [Retrieved from].
Nielsen, R.W. (2015b). Mathematics of predicting growth. Turkish Economic Review, 2(4), 228-238.
Nielsen, R.W. (2015c). The insecure future of the world economic growth. Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 2(4), 242-255.
Nielsen, R.W. (2015d). Early warning signs of the economic crisis in Greece: A warning for other countries and regions. Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 2(4), 460-466.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016a). Mathematical analysis of the historical economic growth with a search for takeoffs from stagnation to growth. Journal of Economic Library, 3(1), 1-23.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016b). Mathematical analysis of historical income per capita distributions. Economic Review,3(2), 300-319.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016c). The unresolved mystery of the great divergence is solved. Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 3(2), 196-219.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016d). Unified Growth Theory contradicted by the absence of takeoffs in the Gross Domestic Product. Turkish Economic Review, 3(1), 16-27.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016e). Puzzling properties of the historical growth rate of income per capita explained. Journal of Economics Library, 3(2),241-256.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016f). The postulate of the three regimes of economic growth contradicted by data. Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 3(1), 1-34.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016g). Unified Growth Theory contradicted by the mathematical analysis of the historical growth of human population. Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 3(2), 242-263.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016h). Scientifically unacceptable established knowledge in demography and in economic research. Journal of Economic Library, 3(3), 429-457.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016i). Demographic Transition Theory and its link to the historical economic growth. Journal of Economic and Political Economy, 3(1), 32-49.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016j). Growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years and its link to the economic growth. Journal of Economics Bibliography, 3(1), 1-12.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016k). Industrial Revolution did not boost economic growth and the growth of population even in the United Kingdom. Journal of Economics Bibliography, 3(4), xxxx-xxx.
Podlazov, A.V. (2002). Theoretical demography: Models of population growth and global demographic transition (in Russian). In Advances in Synergetics: The Outlook for the Third Millennium (pp. 324–345). Moscow: Nauka.
Shklovskii, J.S. (1962). The universe, life and mind, (in Russian). Moscow: Academy of Science, USSR.
Shklovskii, J.S. (2002). The universe life and mind (5th edn.). John Wiley and Sons, Ltd, New York, US.
Snowdon, B. & Galor, O. (2008).Towards aUnified Theory of Economic Growth. World Economics, 9, 97-151.
Statistics Mauritius, (2014). Digest of Demographic Statistics. Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, Demography Unit, Port Louis, Mauritius. [Retrieved from].
Statistics Sweden (1999). Population development in Sweden in a 250-year perspective. Stockholm: Statistics Sweden. [Retrieved from].
Taeuber, C. & Taeuber, I.B. (1949). World Population Trends. Journal of Farm Economics, 31(1), 241.
Thomlinson, R. (1975). Demographic Problems, Controversy Over Population Control (2nd ed.). Encino, Ca. Dickenson Pub.
Trager, J. (1994). The People's Chronology: A Year-by-Year Record of Human Events from Prehistory to the Present. New York, NY: Henry Holt and Company.
United Nations, (1973). The Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends, Population Studies, No. 50, p.10.
United Nations, (1999). The World at Six Billion. [Retrieved from].
United Nations, (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, DVD Edition. Washington DC: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, , [Retrieved from].
von Foerster, H., Mora, P., & Amiot, L. (1960). Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026. Science, 132, 1291-1295.
von Hoerner, S.J. (1975). Population explosion and interstellar expansion. Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, 28, 691-712.
Wrigley, E.A., & Schofield, R.S. (1981). The Population History of England 1541-1871. London: Edward Arnold (Publishers) Ltd.
- There are currently no refbacks.
Turkish Economic Review - Turk. Econ. Rev. - TER - www.kspjournals.org
Copyright © KSP Journals