Covid-19 in society between 2020 (without vaccinations) and 2021 (with vaccinations): A case study

Mario COCCIA

Abstract


Abstract. This study develops a comparative analysis of the effects of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between April-June 2020 (without vaccinations) and April-June 2021 (with vaccinations) in Italy. The findings reveal that the dynamics of COVID-19 is declining because of its seasonality that reduce the effects in summer season. Hence, this study provides critical lessons that could be of benefit to countries for crisis management of pandemic diseases, showing how seasonality can reduce the diffusion of airborne disease of novel viral agents in summer.

Keywords. Pandemic diseases; Coronavirus; Vaccines; Vaccination campaigns; Health systems; Climate;  Seasonality.

JEL. C52; L25; M14.

Keywords


Pandemic diseases; Coronavirus; Vaccines; Vaccination campaigns; Health systems; Climate; Seasonality.

Full Text:


References


Abbasi, J. (2020). COVID-19 and mRNA vaccines-first large test for a new approach. JAMA, 324(12), 1125–1127. doi. 10.1001/jama.2020.16866

Abuza, Z. (2020). Explaining successful (and unsuccessful) COVID-19 responses in Southeast Asia. The Diplomat. July 7, 2020, [Retrieved from].

Akamatsu, T., Nagae, T., Osawa, M., Satsukawa, K., Sakai, T., & Mizutani, D. (2021). Model-based analysis on social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against the COVID-19 pandemic. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 2003. doi. 10.1038/s41598-021-81630-9

Aldila, D., Samiadji, B.M., Simorangkir, G.M., Khosnaw, S.H.A., & Shahzad, M. (2021). Impact of early detection and vaccination strategy in COVID-19 eradication program in Jakarta, Indonesia, BMC Research Notes, 14(1),132.

Anderson, R.M., Vegvari, C., Truscott, J., & Collyer, B.S. (2020). Challenges in creating herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection by mass vaccination. Lancet, 396(10263), 1614–1616. doi. 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32318-7

Angelopoulos, A.N., Pathak R., Varma R., Jordan M.I. (2020). On identifying and mitigating bias in the estimation of the COVID-19 case fatality rate. Harvard Data Science Review. doi. 10.1162/99608f92.f01ee285

Anttiroiko, A.-V. (2021). Successful government responses to the pandemic: Contextualizing national and urban responses to the COVID-19 outbreak in east and west. International Journal of E-Planning Research, 10(2), 1-17.

Arato, A. (2004). Introduction. Social Research, 71(4), 965–966.

Ardito, L., & Coccia M., Messeni P.A. (2021). Technological exaptation and crisis management: Evidence from COVID-19 outbreaks. R&D Management, 51(4), 381-392. Special Issue: Providing solutions in emergencies: R&D and innovation management during Covid‐19 Part‐2. doi. 10.1111/radm.12455

Ardito, L., Coccia, M., Messeni, P.A. (2021). Technological exaptation and crisis management: Evidence from COVID-19 outbreaks. R&D Management, 51(4), 381-392. doi. 10.1111/radm.12455

Aschwanden, C. (2020). The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19. Nature. 587(7832), 26-28. doi. 10.1038/d41586-020-02948-4

Aschwanden, C. (2021). Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible. Nature, 591(7851), 520–522. doi. 10.1038/d41586-021-00728-2

Bontempi, E., & Coccia, M. (2021). International trade as critical parameter of COVID-19 spread that outclasses demographic, economic, environmental, and pollution factors, Environmental Research, 201, Article number: 111514. doi. 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111514

Bontempi, E., Coccia, M., Vergalli, S., & Zanoletti, A. (2021). Can commercial trade represent the main indicator of the COVID-19 diffusion due to human-to-human interactions? A comparative analysis between Italy, France, and Spain, Environmental Research, 201, Article number 111529. doi. 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111529

Brown, R., Kelly, D., Wilkinson, D., & Savulescu, J. (2021). The scientific and ethical feasibility of immunity passports. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 21(3), e58–e63. 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30766-0

Buttenheim, A.M., & Asch, D.A. (2013). Making vaccine refusal less of a free ride. Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics, 9(12), 2674–2675. doi. 10.4161/hv.26676

Calabrese, G., Coccia, M., & Rolfo S. (2005). Strategy and market management of new product development: evidence from Italian SMEs. International Journal of Product Development, 2(1-2), 170-189. doi. 10.1504/IJPD.2005.006675

Chantler, T., Karafillakis, E., & Wilson, J. (2019). Vaccination: Is there a place for penalties for non-compliance? Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, 17(3), 265–271. 10.1007/s40258-019-00460-z

Coccia, M. (2003). Metrics of R&D performance and management of public research institute, Proceedings of IEEE- IEMC 03, Piscataway, pp. 231-236.

Coccia, M. (2005). A taxonomy of public research bodies: a systemic approach, Prometheus, 23(1), 63-82. doi. 10.1080/0810902042000331322

Coccia, M. (2005a). Countrymetrics: valutazione della performance economica e tecnologica dei paesi e posizionamento dell’Italia, Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, 113(3), 377-412.

Coccia, M. (2008). Measuring scientific performance of public research units for strategic change. Journal of Informetrics, 2(3), 183-194. doi. 10.1016/j.joi.2008.04.001

Coccia, M. (2013). Population and technological innovation: the optimal interaction across modern countries, Working Paper Ceris del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, vol.15, n.7.

Coccia, M. (2014). Steel market and global trends of leading geo-economic players. International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, 7(1), 36-52. doi. 10.1504/IJTGM.2014.058714

Coccia, M. (2015). Spatial relation between geo-climate zones and technological outputs to explain the evolution of technology. Int. J. Transitions and Innovation Systems, 4(1), 5-21. doi. 10.1504/IJTIS.2015.074642

Coccia, M. (2016). Problem-driven innovations in drug discovery: co-evolution of the patterns of radical innovation with the evolution of problems, Health Policy and Technology, 5(2), 143-155. doi. 10.1016/j.hlpt.2016.02.003

Coccia, M. (2017). Varieties of capitalism’s theory of innovation and a conceptual integration with leadership-oriented executives: the relation between typologies of executive, technological and socioeconomic performances. Int. J. Public Sector Performance Management, 3(2), 148–168. doi. 10.1504/IJPSPM.2017.084672

Coccia, M. (2017a). Disruptive firms and industrial change, Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 4(4), 437-450. doi. 10.1453/jest.v4i4.1511

Coccia, M. (2017b). New directions in measurement of economic growth, development and under development, Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 4(4), 382-395. doi. 10.1453/jepe.v4i4.1533

Coccia, M. (2017c). Sources of disruptive technologies for industrial change. L’industria –Rivista di Economia e Politica Industriale, 38(1), 97-120. doi. 10.1430/87140

Coccia, M. (2017d). Sources of technological innovation: Radical and incremental innovation problem-driven to support competitive advantage of firms. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 29(9), 1048-1061. doi. 10.1080/09537325.2016.1268682

Coccia, M. (2018). An introduction to the methods of inquiry in social sciences, Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, 5(2), 116-126. doi. 10.1453/jsas.v5i2.1651

Coccia, M. (2018a). An introduction to the theories of institutional change, Journal of Economics Library, 5(4), 337-344. doi. 10.1453/jel.v5i4.1788

Coccia, M. (2018b). General properties of the evolution of research fields: a scientometric study of human microbiome, evolutionary robotics and astrobiology, Scientometrics, 117(2), 1265-1283. doi. 10.1007/s11192-018-2902-8

Coccia, M. (2018c). The origins of the economics of Innovation, Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 5(1), 9-28. doi. 10.1453/jest.v5i1.1574

Coccia, M. (2018d). The relation between terrorism and high population growth, Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 5(1), 84-104. doi. 10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1575

Coccia, M. (2018e). Classification of innovation considering technological interaction, Journal of Economics Bibliography, 5(2), 76-93. doi. 10.1453/jeb.v5i2.1650

Coccia, M. (2018f). An introduction to the theories of national and regional economic development, Turkish Economic Review, 5(4), 350-358. doi. 10.1453/ter.v5i4.1794

Coccia, M. (2019). Metabolism of public organizations: A case study, Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, 6(1), 1-9. doi. 10.1453/jsas.v6i1.1793

Coccia, M. (2019a). The theory of technological parasitism for the measurement of the evolution of technology and technological forecasting, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 141, 289-304. doi. 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.12.012

Coccia, M. (2019b). A Theory of classification and evolution of technologies within a Generalized Darwinism, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 31(5), 517-531. doi. 10.1080/09537325.2018.1523385

Coccia, M. (2019l). Theories and the reasons for war: a survey. Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 6(2), 115-124. doi. 10.1453/jest.v6i2.1890

Coccia, M. (2020a). Factors determining the diffusion of COVID-19 and suggested strategy to prevent future accelerated viral infectivity similar to COVID. Science of The Total Environment, 729, n.138474. doi. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138474

Coccia, M. (2020b). How (Un)sustainable Environments are Related to the Diffusion of COVID-19: The Relation between Coronavirus Disease 2019, Air Pollution, Wind Resource and Energy. Sustainability, 12, 9709. doi. 10.3390/su12229709

Coccia, M. (2020c). How do environmental, demographic, and geographical factors influence the spread of COVID-19. Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, 7(3), 169-209. doi. 10.1453/jsas.v7i3.2018

Coccia, M. (2020d). Destructive Technologies for Industrial and Corporate Change. In: Farazmand A. (eds), Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance. Springer, Cham. doi. 10.1007/978-3-319-31816-5_3972-1

Coccia, M. (2020e). Deep learning technology for improving cancer care in society: New directions in cancer imaging driven by artificial intelligence. Technology in Society, 60, 1-11, art. no.101198. doi. 10.1016/j.techsoc.2019.101198

Coccia, M. (2020f). How does science advance? Theories of the evolution of science. Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 7(3), 153-180. doi. 10.1453/jest.v7i3.2111

Coccia, M. (2020g). The evolution of scientific disciplines in applied sciences: dynamics and empirical properties of experimental physics, Scientometrics, 124, 451-487. doi. 10.1007/s11192-020-03464-y

Coccia, M. (2020h). Multiple working hypotheses for technology analysis, Journal of Economics Bibliography, 7(2), 111-126. doi. 10.1453/jeb.v7i2.2050

Coccia, M. (2020i). Asymmetry of the technological cycle of disruptive innovations. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 32(12), 1462-1477. doi. 10.1080/09537325.2020.1785415

Coccia, M., Bellitto, M. (2018). Human progress and its socioeconomic effects in society, Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 5(2), 160-178. doi. 10.1453/jest.v5i2.1649

Coccia, M., Benati, I. (2018). Rewards in public administration: A proposed classification, Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, 5(2), 68-80. doi. 10.1453/jsas.v5i2.1648

Coccia, M., Benati, I. (2018a). Comparative Models of Inquiry, A. Farazmand (ed.), Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance, Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature. doi. 10.1007/978-3-319-31816-5_1199-1

Coccia, M., Cadario, E. (2014). Organisational (un)learning of public research labs in turbulent context. International Journal of Innovation and Learning, 15(2), 115-129. doi. 10.1504/IJIL.2014.059756

Coccia, M., Finardi, U. (2012). Emerging nanotechnological research for future pathway of biomedicine. International Journal of Biomedical nanoscience and nanotechnology, 2(3-4), 299-317. doi. 10.1504/IJBNN.2012.051223

Coccia, M., Finardi, U. (2013). New technological trajectories of non-thermal plasma technology in medicine. Int. J. Biomedical Engineering and Technology, 11(4), 337-356. doi. 10.1504/IJBET.2013.055665

Coccia, M., Rolfo, S. (2000). Ricerca pubblica e trasferimento tecnologico: il caso della regione Piemonte in Rolfo S. (eds) Innovazione e piccole imprese in Piemonte, Franco Angeli Editore, Milano (Italy).

Coccia, M., Rolfo, S. (2008). Strategic change of public research units in their scientific activity, Technovation, 28(8), 485-494. doi. 10.1016/j.technovation.2008.02.005

Coccia, M., Wang, L. (2015). Path-breaking directions of nanotechnology-based chemotherapy and molecular cancer therapy, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 94(1), 155–169. doi. 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.09.007

Coccia, M., Wang, L. (2016). Evolution and convergence of the patterns of international scientific collaboration, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(8), 2057-2061. doi. 10.1073/pnas.1510820113

Coccia, M., Watts, J. (2020). A theory of the evolution of technology: technological parasitism and the implications for innovation management, Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 55(2020), 101552. doi. 10.1016/j.jengtecman.2019.11.003

Crowther, W. (2017). Ethnic condominium and illiberalism in Macedonia. East European Politics and Societies, 31(4), 739–61. doi. 10.1177/0888325417716515

Dashtbali, M., & Mirzaie, M. (2021). A compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling COVID-19, Scientific Reports, 11(1),8191

de Vlas, S.J., & Coffeng, L.E. (2021). Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 4445. doi. 10.1038/s41598-021-83492-7

Debiec, J., & LeDoux, J. (2004). Fear and the brain. Social Research, 71(4), 807–818.

Dye, C., & Mills, M.C. (2021). COVID-19 vaccination passports. Science, 371(6535), 1184. doi. 10.1126/science.abi5245

Echoru, I., Ajambo, P.D., Keirania, E., & Bukenya, E.E.M. (2021). Sociodemographic factors associated with acceptance of COVID-19 vaccine and clinical trials in Uganda: a cross-sectional study in western Uganda, BMC Public Health, 21(1), 1106.

Fontanet, A., & Cauchemez, S. (2020). COVID-19 herd immunity: where are we? Nature reviews. Immunology, 20(10), 583–584. doi. 10.1038/s41577-020-00451-5

Freedom House, (2021). Countries and Territories. Accessed November2021.[Retrieved from].

Freedom House. (2021a). Freedom in the World 2020 Methodology. Accessed 5 November 2021. [Retrieved from].

Gore, A. (2004). The Politics of Fear. Social Research, 71(4), 779–798.

Günay, C., & Vedran D. (2016). Decoding the authoritarian code: Exercising ‘legitimate’ power politics through the ruling parties in Turkey, Macedonia and Serbia. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 16(4): 529–549. doi. 10.1080/14683857.2016.1242872

Johns Hopkins Center for System Science and Engineering, (2021). Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases. Accessed in 4 November 2021. [Retrieved from].

Kamin-Friedman, S., & Peled Raz, M. (2021). Lessons from Israel's COVID-19 Green Pass program. Israel journal of health policy research, 10(1), 61.doi.10.1186/s13584-021-00496-4

Kanyike, A.M., Olum, R., Kajjimu, J., Ojilong, D., Akech, G.M., Nassozi, D.R., Agira, D., Wamala, N.K., Asiimwe, A., Matovu, D., Nakimul, A.B., Lyavala, M., Kulwenza, P., Kiwumulo, J., & Bongomin, F. (2021). Acceptance of the coronavirus disease-2019 vaccine among medical students in Uganda. Tropical Medicine and Health, 49(1), 37. doi. 10.1186/s41182-021-00331-1

Kosciejew, M.R.H. (2021). COVID-19 immunity (or vaccine) passports: a documentary overview and analysis of regimes of health verification within the coronavirus pandemic, Journal of Documentation, doi. 10.1108/JD-04-2021-0079

Kwok, K.O., Lai, F., Wei, W.I., Wong, S., & Tang, J. (2020). Herd immunity - estimating the level required to halt the COVID-19 epidemics in affected countries. The Journal of Infection, 80(6), e32–e33. doi. 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.03.027

Lupia, A., & Menning, J.O. (2009). When can politicians scare citizens into supporting bad policies? American Journal of Political Science, 53(1), 90–106.

Luster, T., Albin, E., Gross, A., Tabenkin, M., & Davidovitch, N. (2021). Promoting vaccination from a human rights and equity perspective: Lessons from the Israeli “Green Pass”. European Journal of Risk Regulation, 12(2), 308-320. doi. 10.1017/err.2021.36

MAYO CLINIC, (2021=. Different types of COVID-19 vaccines: How they work. Accessed 6 September 2021. [Retrieved from].

Lavrič, M., & Bieber, F. (2021) Shifts in support for authoritarianism and democracy in the Western Balkans, Problems of Post-Communism, 68(1), 17-26. doi. 10.1080/10758216.2020.1757468

Murphy, J., Vallières, F., Bentall, R.P., (...), Karatzias, T., & Hyland, P. (2021). Psychological characteristics associated with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and resistance in Ireland and the United Kingdom, Nature Communications, 12(1), 29.

Norris, P. (2008). Driving democracy. Do power-sharing institutions work? Cambridge University Press. doi. 10.1017/CBO9780511790614

Our World in Data, (2021). Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data. Accessed 19 October 2021. [Retrieved from].

Pagliaro, M., & Coccia, M. (2021). How self-determination of scholars outclasses shrinking public research lab budgets, supporting scientific production: a case study and R&D management implications. Heliyon. 7(1), e05998. doi. 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e05998

Phelan, A.L. (2020). COVID-19 immunity passports and vaccination certificates: scientific, equitable, and legal challenges. Lancet, 395(10237), 1595–1598. doi. 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31034-5

Prewitt, K., Alterman, E., Arato, A., Pyszczynski, T., Robin, C., & Stern, J. (2004). The politics of fear after 9/11. Social Research, 71(4), 1129–1146.

Prieto, C.R., González-Ramírez, H. (2021). Vaccination strategies against COVID-19 and the diffusion of anti-vaccination views, Scientific Reports, 11(1), 6626.

Randolph, H.E., Barreiro, L.B. (2020). Herd immunity: understanding COVID-19. Immunity 52, 737–741

Redwan, E.M. (2021). COVID-19 pandemic and vaccination build herd immunity. European Review for Medical and Pharmacological Sciences, 25(2), 577–579. doi. 10.26355/eurrev_202101_24613

Ritchie, H., Ortiz-Ospina, E., Beltekian, D., Mathieu, E., Hasel, J., Macdonald, B., Giattino, C., & Roser, M. (2020). Policy responses to the coronavirus pandemic. Our World in Data, Statistics and Research. Access July 7, 2020. [Retrieved from].

Robin, C. (2004). Liberalism at bay, conservatism at play: Fear in the contemporary imagination. Social Research, 71(4), 927–962.

Saban, M., Myers, V., Ben Shetrit, S., & Wilf-Miron, R. (2021). Issues surrounding incentives and penalties for COVID-19 vaccination: The Israeli experience. Preventive Medicine, 153, 106763. doi. 10.1016/j.ypmed.2021.106763

Schwarzinger, M., Watson, V., Arwidson, P., Alla, F., & Luchini S. (2021). COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in a representative working-age population in France: a survey experiment based on vaccine characteristics. Lancet Public Health, doi.10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00012-8

Soveri, A., Karlsson, L.C., Antfolk, J., Lindfelt, M., Lewandowsky, S., (2021). Unwillingness to engage in behaviors that protect against COVID-19: the role of conspiracy beliefs, trust, and endorsement of complementary and alternative medicine, BMC Public Health, 21(1), 684.

The World Bank, (2021). GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$), World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files. Accessed November 2021. [Retrieved from].

Vergara, R., Sarmiento, P., & Lagman, J. (2021). Building public trust: a response to COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy predicament. Journal of Public Health, 43(2), e291–e292. doi. 10.1093/pubmed/fdaa282

Verger, P., & Peretti-Watel, P. (2021). Understanding the determinants of acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines: a challenge in a fast-moving situation. The Lancet. Public Health, 6(4), e195–e196. doi. 10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00029-3

Vinceti, M., Filippini, T., Rothman, K. J., Di Federico, S., & Orsini, N. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence during the first and second COVID-19 waves in Italy. Environmental Research, 197, 111097. doi. 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111097

Vladisavljević, N. (2019). Media discourse and the quality of democracy in Serbia after Milošević. Europe-Asia Studies. doi. 10.1080/09668136.2019.1669534

Waitzberg, R., Triki, N., Alroy-Preis, A., Lotan, T., Shiran, L., & Ash, N. (2021). The Israeli experience with the “green pass” policy highlights issues to be considered by policymakers in other countries, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(21), 11212. doi. 10.3390/ijerph182111212

Wesołowski, W. (1990). Transition from authoritarianism to democracy. Social Research, 57(2), 435–461.

Wilf-Miron, R., Myers, V., & Saban, M. (2021). Incentivizing vaccination uptake: The "green pass" proposal in Israel. JAMA, 325(15), 1503–1504. 10.1001/jama.2021.4300

Wong, L. (1991). Authoritarianism and transition to democracy in a Third World State, Critical Sociology, 18(2), 77–101. doi. 10.1177/089692059101800204




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1453/jsas.v9i2.2331

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Bookmark and Share


....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences - J. Adm. Soc. Sci. - JSAS - www.kspjournals.org

ISSN: 2149-0406

Editor: editor-jsas@kspjournals.org   Secretarial: secretarial@kspjournals.org   Istanbul - Turkey.

Copyright © KSP Library