Demographic Transition Theory and Its Link to the Historical Economic Growth
Abstract
Abstract. In the absence of convincing evidence, data for Sweden and Mauritius are used in academic publications to illustrate the Demographic Transition Theory. These data are closely examined and found to be in clear contradiction of this theory. Demographic Transition Theory is also contradicted by the best available data for England. Other examples of contradicting evidence are also discussed.
Keywords. Population growth, Economic growth, Malthusian stagnation, Unified Growth Theory, Demographic Growth Theory, Stages of growth.
JEL. A12, A20, B10, C50, Y80.
Keywords
References
Abernethy, V. (1995). The demographic transition model: A ghost story. Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 17(1), 3-5. doi. 10.1007/BF02208273
Caldwell, J.C. (1976). Towards a reinstatement of demographic transition theory. Population and Development Review, 2(3-4), 321-266.
Caldwell, J.C. (2006). Demographic Transition Theory. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer.
Casterline, J.B. (2003). Demographic transition.In P. Demeny& G. McNicoll (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Population, Vol. I (pp. 210-216). Farmington Hills, MI: Macmillan Reference.
Chrispeels, M.J., & Sadava, D. E. (1994). Human population growth: Lessons from demography. In: D. Jones & T. L. Bartlett (Eds.), Plants, Genes, and Agriculture (pp. 13-34). Boston, MA: Jones and Bartlett Publishers.
Coale A. (1973). The demographic transition reconsidered. Proceedings of the International Population Conference, 53-72. Liege, Belgium: IUSSP
Floud, D., & McCloskey, D.N. (1994). The Economic History of Britain since 1700. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
Friedman, R. (2015). Private communication.
Galor, O. (2005). From stagnation to growth: Unified Growth Theory. In P. Aghion& S. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth (pp. 171-293). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Galor, O. (2011). Unified Growth Theory.Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
Galor, O., & Weil, D. N. (2000). Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond. The American Economic Review, 90(4), 806-828. doi. 10.1257/aer.90.4.806
Haupt, A., & Kane, T.T. (2005). Population handbook (5th edn.). Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.
Kirk, D. (1996). Demographic Transition Theory. Population Studies, 50(3), 361-387. doi. 10.1080/0032472031000149536
Komlos, J.H. (2000). The Industrial Revolution as the Escape from the Malthusian Trap. Journal of European Economic History, 29, 307-331.
Landry, A. (1934). La révolutiondémographique: Étudeetessai sur les problemes de la population. Paris: INED.
Lesthaeghe, R. (2010). The unfolding story of the second demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 36(2), 211-251. doi. 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x
Lesthaeghe, R. (2014). The second demographic transition: A concise overview of its development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 18112–18115. doi. 10.1073/pnas.1420441111
Lesthaeghe, R., & van de Kaa, D.J. (1986).Twee demografischetransities? In D.J. van de Kaa and R. Lesthaeghe (Eds.), Bevolking: GroeienKrimp (pp. 9-24). Deventer: Van LoghumSlaterus
Lee, R. (2003). The demographic transition: Three centuries of fundamental change. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(4), 167-190. doi. 10.1257/089533003772034943
Lehmeyer, J. (2004). Mauritius: Historical demographical data of the whole country. http://www.populstat.info/Africa/mauritic.htm
Lehr, C.S. (2009). Evidence on the demographic transition. Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(4), 871-887. doi. 10.1162/rest.91.4.871
Lutz, W., & Qiang, R. (2002). Determinants of human population growth. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., 357, 1197–1210. doi. 10.1098/rstb.2002.1121
Maddison, A. (2010). Historical statistics of the world economy: 1-2008 AD. http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/Historical Statistics/horizontal-file_02-2010.xls
Manning, S. (2008).Year-by-Year World Population Estimates: 10,000 B.C. to 2007 A.D. http://www.scottmanning.com/content/year-by-year-world-population-estimates/and references therein.
Mauritius (2015). Demographics of Mauritius. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Mauritius
McFalls Jr, J.A. (2007). Population: A Lively Introduction (5th ed.). Washington DC: Population Reference Bureau.
Montgomery, K. (n.d.). The Demographic Transition. http://www.marathon.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm
Montgomery, K. (2012). Private communication
Myrskyla, M., Kohler, H-P., & Billari, F. (2009). Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature, 460, 741-743. doi. 10.1038/nature08230
Notestein, F. (1945). Population: The long view. In T. Shultz (ed.), Food for the World (pp. 36-57). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Nielsen, R.W. (2013). No stagnation in the growth of population. http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1311/1311.3997.pdf
Nielsen, R.W. (2014). Changing the Paradigm. Applied Mathematics, 5, 1950-1963. doi. 10.4236/am.2014.513188
Nielsen, R.W. (2015). Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the GDP/cap Data. http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1511/1511.09323.pdf
Nielsen, R. W. (2016). Growth of the World Population in the Past 12,000 Years and Its Link to the Economic Growth. Turkish Economic Review, 3(1), 16-27.
Olshansky, S.J., & Ault, A.B. (1986). The fourth stage of the epidemiologic transition: The Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 64(3), 355-391.
Olshansky, S.J., Carnes, B., Rogers, R.G., & Smith, L. (1997). Infectious diseases - New and ancient threats to world health. Population Bulletin, 52(2), 2-52.
Olshansky, S.J. Carnes, B.A, Rogers, R.G. & Smith, L. (1998). Emerging infectious diseases : the Fifth stage of the epidemiologic transition? World Health Statistics Quarterly, 51(2-4), 207-217.
Omran, A.R. (1971). The epidemiologic transition: A theory of the epidemiology of population change. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 83(4), 509-538. doi. 10.1111/j.1468-0009.2005.00398.x
Omran, A.R. (1983). The epidemiologic transition theory.A preliminary update. Journal of Tropical Pediatrics, 29(6), 305-316. doi. 10.1093/tropej/29.6.305
Omran, A.R. (1998). The epidemiological transition revisited thirty years later. World Health Statistics Quarterly, 51, 99-191. doi. 10.2307/3349375
Omran, A.R. (2005). The epidemiologic transition: A theory of the epidemiology of population change. The Milbank Quarterly, 83(4), 731-757. doi. 10.1111/j.1468-0009.2005.00398.x
Rogers, R.G., & Hackenberg, R. (1987). Extending epidemiologic transition theory, A new stage. Social Biology, 34(3-4), 234-243. doi. 10.1080/19485565.1987.9988678
Singha, V.C., & Zacharia, E. (1984). Elements of demography. New Delhi: Allied Publishers Pvt Ltd.
Statistics Mauritius, (2014). Digest of Demographic Statistics. Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, Demography Unit, Port Louis, Mauritius. http://statsmauritius.govmu.org/English/StatsbySubj/Documents/Digest/Demographic13.pdf
Statistics Sweden (1999).Population development in Sweden in a 250-year perspective. Stockholm: Statistics Sweden. http://www.scb.se/Grupp/Hitta_statistik/Historisk_statistik/_Dokument/Befolkningsutvecklingen_under_250_ar_Historisk_statistik_1700talet_1800talet_1900talet.pdf
Thomlinson, R. (1965). Population dynamics: Causes and consequences of world demographic change. New York: Random House.
Thompson, W.S. (1929). Population. American Journal of Sociology, 34(6), 959-975.
Thompson, V., Roberge, M.C. (2015). An Alternative Visualization of the Demographic Transition Model. Journal of Geography, 114, 254–259. doi. 10.1080/00221341.2014.983144
UN (2013).World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, DVD Edition. Washigton DC: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/Interpolated.htm
US Census Bureau (2015).International Data Base.http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpopinfo.php and references therein.
van de Kaa, D.J. (2001). Demographic Transition, Second. In N. J. Smelser& B. Baltes (Eds.), International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences (pp. 3486-3488). Oxford: Elsevier Science Ltd.
van de Kaa, D.J. (2002). The idea of a second demographic transition in industrialized countries. Paper presented at the Sixth Welfare Policy Seminar of the National Institute of Population and Social Security, Tokyo, 29 January.
van de Kaa, D. J. (2008). Demographic Transition.In Y. Zeng (Ed.).Demography.Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems.Vol. 2. Paris: UNESCO.
von Foerster, H., Mora, P., & Amiot, L. (1960). Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026. Science, 132, 1291-1295. doi. 10.1126/science.132.3436.1291
Warf, B. (2010). Demographic Transition.In Warf B (Ed.).Encyclopedia of Geography (pp. 708-711). Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE.
Wrigley, E.A., & Schofield, R.S. (1981). The Population History of England 1541-1871. London: Edward Arnold (Publishers) Ltd.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1453/jepe.v3i1.618
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Journal of Economics and Political Economy - J. Econ. Pol. Econ. - JEPE - www.kspjournals.org
ISSN: 2148-8347
Editor: [email protected] Secretarial: [email protected] Istanbul - Turkey.
Copyright © KSP Library