Impact of loadshedding in South Africa: A CGE analysis

Jean Luc ERERO

Abstract


Abstract. The aim of this paper is to provide a practical contribution to the body of knowledge on the impact of loadshedding in South Africa. This study adopted a pragmatic research methodology by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for empirical analysis. This study estimates that loadshedding will reduce economic growth by 2.3%, this higher than the Banks earlier prediction of a 0.6%. This study is limited to the effects of loadshedding and shed light on the South African economy that has been adversely affected by the Covid 19 pandemic and its recovery trajectory which is now stifled by persistent load shedding. Empirical analysis of the effects of loadshedding through the usage of the CGE model establishes the originality of this study.

Keywords. Loadshedding; Electricity; Energy; CGE model.

JEL. D58; L90; L94.

Keywords


Loadshedding; Electricity; Energy; CGE model.

Full Text:


References


Akinbani, O.M., Oke, S.R. & Bodunrin M.O. (2021). The state of renewable energy development in South Africa: An overview. Alexandria Engineering Journal, 60(6), 5077–5093. doi. 10.1016/j.aej.2021.03.065

Akinboarde, O.A., Niedermeier, E.W., & Sibanda, F. (2002). The Impact of Electricity Trade in the Environment of South Africa, 2002 Annual TIPS Forum, Johannesburg, South Africa. accessed 13 December 2022. [Retrieved from].

Armington, P.S. (1969). A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers. 16, 159- 176. doi. 10.5089/9781451956245.024

Armington, P.S. (1970). Adjustment of trade balances: Some experiments with a model of trade among many countries. IMF Staff Papers, XVII, November, pp.488-523.

Assistant Secretary for Energy Technology. (1978). Impact Assessment of the 1977. New York City Blackout. New York City: The U.S. Department of Energy.

Bureau of Economic Research (BER). (2022). Coast of loadshedding. accessed 5 January 2023. [Retrieved from].

Checchi, A., Behrens, A., & Egenhofer, C. (2009). Long-Term Energy Security Risks for Europe: A Sector-specific Approach.

CSIR. (2019). The State of Logistics Survey for South Africa. accessed 13 December 2022. [Retrieved from].

CSIR. (2020). Loadshedding in South Africa, accessed 2 April 2023. [Retrieved from].

CSIR. (2023). Boost local solutions for sustainable energy storage, accessed 13 December 2022. [Retrieved from].

DME, (1998), Digest of South African Energy Statistics. accessed 11 December 2022. [Retrieved from].

Erero, J.L. (2021). Contribution of VAT to economic growth: A dynamic CGE analysis. Journal of Economics & Management, 43, 26-55. doi. 10.22367/jem.2021.43.02

Eskom, (2023). Surplus Capacity-why we no longer have it: Fact Sheet. accessed 12 December 2022. [Retrieved from].

Findt, K., Scott, D.B., & Lindfeld, D.C. (2014). Sub-Saharan Africa Power Outlook. KPMG Infrastructure & Major Projects Group, Johannesburg: KPMG.

Horridge, J.M., Parmenter, B.R. & Pearson, K.R. (1993). ORANI-G: A general equilibrium model of the Australian economy. Generic version. Revised March 1997.

Le Roux, M. (2006). Mbeki: there is no electricity crisis, Mail and Guardian Online, 30 March 2006.

Linares, P., & Rey, L. (2013). The costs of electricity interruptions in Spain: Are we sending the right signals? Energy Policy, 61. 751-760. doi. 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.083

Loschel, A., Moslener, U., & Rubbelke, D.T. (2010). Indicators of energy security in industrialisation countries. Energy policy, 38(4), 1665-1671. doi. 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.061

National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA), (2007). An Independent Electricity Suppply Industry Risk Addessment and Mitigation Strategies.

National Treasury. (2023). Budget Review, South Africa. [Retrieved from].

SARB. 2023. Quarterly bulletin., access date. 07 December 2022. [Retrieved from].

SARS. 2023. Annual Report. Pretoria. access date. 07 February 2023. [Retrieved from].

Shanghvi, A. P. (1991). Power shortages in developing countries. Energy policy, 19(5). 425-440. doi. 10.1016/0301-4215(91)90020-O

Standard Bank. 2023. Electricity Tracker March 2023.

Stats SA. (2022). Annual Financial Survey. [Retrieved from].

Winzer, C. (2012). Conceptualizing energy security. Energy policy, 46, 36-48. doi. 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.067




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1453/jepe.v10i2.2443

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Bookmark and Share


.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Journal of Economics and Political Economy - J. Econ. Pol. Econ. - JEPE - www.kspjournals.org

ISSN: 2148-8347

Editor: [email protected]   Secretarial: [email protected]   Istanbul - Turkey.

Copyright © KSP Library