Email this article 
Hide
Show all
Metropolitan Business Cycle Analysis for Lubbock
Abstract
Abstract. This study develops a business cycle index (BCI) for Lubbock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The Stock & Watson (1989; 1991; 1993) methodology is used to develop the BCI and assumes that the co-movements of key economic indicators have a single underlying, unobservable factor. This factor is extracted from the indicators and used to calculate an index that represents economic conditions through an econometric approach. The model uses the Kalman filter smoothing approach which smooths across variables and over time. This results in an index that is smoother with less pronounced expansions and recessions. Indicator series used for the study are: establishment employment, unemployment, real retail sales and real wages that begin in 1990 and include complete data through the end of 2015. Results indicate that the Lubbock business cycle has peaks and troughs that occur later than those for the national economy.
Keywords. Regional Economics; Business Cycles; Economic Indicators.
JEL. R15, E32.
Full Text:
Zotero
MendeleyReferences
Berger, F.D., & Phillips, K.R. (1993). Reassessing Texas employment growth. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, July/August, 1-3. [Retrieved from].
Berger, F.D., & Phillips, K.R. (1994). Solving the mystery of the disappearing January blip in state employment data. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Second Quarter, 53-62. [Retrieved from].
Burns, A., & Mitchell, W. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles. NBER, New York, NY.
Cañas, J., Coronado, R., & Lopez, J.J. (2005). Cyclical differences emerge in border city economies. Federal Reserve Bank of DallasVista, 2, 1-5. [Retrieved from].
Canas, J., Gilmer, R.W., & Phillips, K. (2003a). A New Index of Coincident Economic Activity for Houston. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Houston Business, April, 1-3. [Retrieved from].
Cañas, J., Gilmer, R.W., & Phillips, K. (2003b). Composite Index: A New Measure of El Paso's Economy. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Business Frontier, 1, 1-4. [Retrieved from].
CB, (2012). Global Business Cycle Indicators. New York, NY: The Conference Board.
Clayton-Matthews, A. (2005). DSFM Manual. Boston, MA: University of Massachusetts.
Clayton-Matthews, A., & Stock, J.H. (1998/1999).An application of the Stock/Watson index methodology to the Massachusetts economy, Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 25(3-4), 183-234.
CLPD & LEC. (2000). Lubbock Economic Indicators 1990 - 1999. Lubbock, TX: The City of Lubbock Planning Department and the Lubbock Economics Council.
Diebold, F.X., & Rudebusch, G.D. (1996). Measuring business cycles: A modern perspective, Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(1), 67-77. doi. 10.2307/2109848
LEDA. (2009). Lubbock, Texas: 2009 Community Profile. Lubbock, TX: Lubbock Economic Development Alliance.
Murphy, A.P. (2005). An Economic Activity Index for Ireland: The Dynamic Single-Factor Method (No 4/RT/05). Dublin, IE: Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland. [Retrieved from].
Neftici, S.N. (1982). Optimal prediction of cyclical downturns, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 4, 225-241. doi. 10.1016/0165-1889(82)90014-8
Phillips, K.R. (1988). New tools for analyzing the Texas economy: Indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Policy Review, July, 1-13.
Phillips, K.R. (1998/1999). The composite index of leading economic indicators: A comparison of approaches. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 25(3-4), 141-162.
Phillips, K.R. (2005). A New Monthly Index of the Texas Business Cycle. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 30(4), 317-333.
Phillips, K.R., & Cañas, J. (2008). Regional business cycle integration along the US–Mexico border. Annals of Regional Science, 42(1), 153-168. doi. 10.1007/s00168-007-0124-8
Phillips, K.R., & Hamden, K.T. (2004). Steady-as-she-goes? An analysis of the San Antonio business cycle. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Vista.Winter, 1-6. [Retrieved from].
Stock, J.H., & Watson, M.W. (1989). New indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators.NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 4, 351-409. [Retrieved from].
Stock, J.H., & Watson, M.W. (1991). A probability model of the coincident economic indicators. Chapter 4 in Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records, K. Lahiri & G. Moore (Eds.), Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Stock, J.H., & Watson, M.W. (1993). A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: Econometric issues and recent experience. Chapter 2 in Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, J.H. Stock & M.W. Watson (Eds.), Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Stock, J.H., & Watson, M.W. (1998). Business Cycle Fluctuations in US Macroeconomic Time Series (No. w6528). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. doi. 10.3386/w6528
Stock, J.H., & Watson, M.W. (1999). Business cycle fluctuations in US macroeconomic time series, Chapter 1 in Handbook of Macroeconomics, Volume 1A, J.B. Taylor and M. Woodford (eds.), New York, NY: North-Holland.
Tebaldi, E., & Kelly, L. (2012). Measuring Economic Conditions: An Extension of the Stock/Watson Methodology. Applied Economics Letters, 19(18), 1865-1869. doi. 10.1080/13504851.2012.669453
USCB. (2002). United States Census Bureau North American Industry Classification System Concordances, 2002 NAICS to 1987 SIC. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1453/jepe.v4i1.1204
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Journal of Economics and Political Economy - J. Econ. Pol. Econ. - JEPE - www.kspjournals.org
ISSN: 2148-8347
Editor: [email protected] Secretarial: [email protected] Istanbul - Turkey.
Copyright © KSP Library
