Survey Effects of Oil Income on Nonoil Export (Case Study: Iran)

Abstract

Abstract. There are so much oil and gas reserves in Iran. Therefore extraction from these reserves and sell extracted oil and gas in international markets causes to high oil income for Iran. Especially in some years which oil price increases, our oil income was too high. In this paper, we want to reveal that, is high oil income caused to rise nonoil export? For this aim, we use from data of 1970-2013 and with Johansen co-integration test and Error Correction Model (ECM) extract short run and long run relations. Results of estimation reveal that in Iran high oil income did not cause to many non oil export in long run and short run. Therefore, we should allocate oil income to import industrial machines and reallocate them to agriculture and industrial sectors which causes to rise national production which will cause to high non oil export. Then, in this condition, our needy exchanges are provided from non oil export and our dependence to oil income will be declined.

Keywords. Oil Income, Nonoil Export, Decline Dependence to Oil Income, Error Correction Model.

JEL. Q32, C12.