Critique of impact assessment of regional trade agreements using non-tariff measures

Abstract

Abstract. Are cent study undertaken by Kawasaki (2017) uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the impact of removal tariffs and non-tariff measures on trade flows and the overall gross domestic product (GDP) of the remaining 11 countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP11) partner countries. This note attempts to provide insights into such estimations so as to help in real impact assessments of the tariff and non-tariff provisions of agreements such as the TPP11. It warns that policy makers who seek to rely on such studies need to be aware of the large number of assumptions that underlie the quantification of the non-tariff measures, including that regulation is necessarily negative for trade, and other limitations of the methodology used. The paper also notes these are only one aspect of the broader economic impacts of an agreement that includes chapters on intellectual property, investor protections, government procurement, and state-owned enterprises, among others.

Keywords. International trade, Tariff, Non-tariff.

JEL. F10, F13, F15, J50.