Application of differential equations in projecting growth trajectories

Ron W. NIELSEN

Abstract


Abstract. Mathematical method based on a direct or indirect analysis of growth rates is described. It is shown how simple assumptions and a relatively easy analysis can be used to describe mathematically complicated trends and to predict growth. Only rudimentary knowledge of calculus is required. Projected trajectories based on such simple initial assumptions are easier to accept and to understand than alternative complicated projections based on more complicated assumptions and on more intricate computational procedures. Examples of the growth of population and of the growth of the Gross Domestic Product are used to illustrate the application of this method of forecasting.

Keywords. Forecasting, Differential equations, Analysis of growth rates, Growth trends.

JEL. C02, C20, C50, C53, C65, Y80.


Keywords


Forecasting; Differential equations; Analysis of growth rates; Growth trends.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1453/jeb.v4i3.1363

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