Early Warning Signs of the Economic Crisis in Greece: A Warning for Other Countries and Regions

Ron W. NIELSEN

Abstract


Abstract. Warning signs about the developing economic crisis in Greece were present in the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and in the growth of the GDP well before the economic collapse. The growth rate was strongly unstable. On average, in less than 50 years, it decreased 10-folds but after reaching a low minimum it quickly increased 6-folds only to crash before completing the full cycle. The decreasing growth rate was leading to an asymptotic maximum of the GDP but it was soon replaced by a fast-increasing growth rate propelling the GDP along a pseudo-hyperbolic trajectory, which if continued would have escaped to infinity in 2017. Such a growth could not have been possibly supported. Under these conditions, the economic collapse in Greece was inevitable.

Keywords. Economic growth, Gross Domestic Product, Greece, Economic crisis, Future economic growth, Early warning signs.

JEL. C00, C20, C40, C50, C53, C60, C80.


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1453/jepe.v2i4.562

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