Political Influence on Creating of Saving-Investment Gap in Transition Countries

Damir PIPLICA

Abstract


Abstract. Governments of transition countries should become aware of the importance of implementation of such an economic policy that would encourage higher saving rates and at the same time bringing it in accordance with investment rates in order to achieve other important macroeconomic goals, without jeopardizing macroeconomic stability of their respective economies. Transition countries EU members have not conduct such an economic policy, which resulted in existence of a substantial difference between total investments and gross national savings in their countries. Although the influence of saving on investments was significant, conducting of economic (investment) policy of the right-wing governments of the transition countries EU members has more influenced imbalance of saving and investment in comparison to the left-wing governments. Should the right-wing governments, in applying of economic measures that stimulate higher investment rate than previous, follow their ideological point of view instead of turning to 'middle' voters, they would have an easier position in reducing saving-investment gap and in achieving macroeconomic stability in comparison to the left-wing governments. However, should the right-wing governments turn more opportunistically to 'middle' voters, instead following their ideological programme, that would make their position difficult in reducing saving-investment gap, because influence of saving to investment would be significantly lesser. Increasing of saving rate with left-wing governments would have significantly weaker influence on balancing of saving and investment in comparison to the right-wing governments, but their opportunistically turning to 'middle' voters would create slightly better position in realizing of macroeconomic stability, because by this their influence on reducing saving-investment gap would be improved compared to the situation when they would follow their left-oriented party programme.

Keywords. Saving, Investment, Political parties, Transition countries, Economic policy.

JEL. E2, H1, P2.

Full Text:


References


Adom, A.D. & Elbahnasawy, N. G. (2014). Saving-investment Gap and economic growth in developing countries: Simulated evidence from selected countries in Africa, British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade, 4(10), 1585-1598. doi. 10.9734/BJEMT/2014/10588

Afzal, M. (2007), Savings and Investment in Developing Countries: Granger Causality test, Philippine Review of Economics, 44(2), 34-44.

Aizenman, J., Pinto, B., & Radziwill, A. (2007), Sources for Financing Domestic Capital – is Foreign Saving a Viable Option for Developing Countries? Journal of International Money and Finance 26 (5), 682-702, doi. 10.2139/ssrn.561045

Akhmedov, A. & Zhuravskaya, E. (2004), Opportunistic political cycles: Test in a young democracy setting, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(4), 1301-1338, doi. 10.1162/0033553042476206

Alesina, A. (1987), Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102(3), 641-678, doi. 10.2307/1884222

Alesina, A., & Roubini, N. (1992), Political Cycles in OECD Economies, The Review of Economic Studies, 59(4), 663-668, doi. 10.2307/2297992

Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Hegerty, S.W., & Wilmeth, H. (2012) The saving-investment Gap and income Inequality: Evidence from 16 countries, Journal of Developing Areas, 46(2), 145-158, doi. 10.1353/jda.2012.0032

Blanchard, O. & Giavazzi, F. (2002), Current account deficits in the Euro Area: The end of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, 33(2), 147-210, doi. 10.1353/eca.2003.0001

Chappell, H.W., & Keech, W.R. (1988), The Unemployment Consequence of Partisan Monetary Regimes, Southern Economic Journal 55, 107- 122, doi. 10.2307/1058860

Cyrille, S.M. (2010), Saving-investment correlation and capital mobility in Sub-Saharan African countries: A reappraisal through inward and outward capital flows’ correlation, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(2), 97-106, doi. 10.5539/ijef.v2n2p97

Cukierman, A. & Meltzer, A.H., (1986). A theory of ambiguity, credibility, and inflation under discretion and asymmetric information, econometrica, Econometric Society, 54(5), 1099-1128, doi. 10.2307/1912324

De Wet, A. & Van Eyden (2005). Capital mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa: A panel data approach, South African Journal of Economics, 73(1), 22-35, doi. 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2005.00002.x

Feldstein, M., (1983), Domestic saving and international sapital movements in the long run and the short run, European Economic Review, Elsevier, 21(1-2), 129-151. doi. 10.1016/s0014-2921(83)80012-9

Feldstein, M., & Horioka, C. (1980). Domestic Savings and Capital Flows, The Economic Journal, 90(358), 314-329. doi. 10.3386/w0310

Gjorgji, G., Naumovska, E.., Jovanovski, K., & Eftimov, L. (2015). Private versus public sector saving-investment Gap in the Macedonian economy – a comparative study, Journal of International Scientific Publications, Economy & Business, 9(1), 31-40.

Gebreyehu, W. (2010), Causal links among saving, investment and growth and determinants of saving in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia, Ethiopian Journal of Economics, 19(2), 1-34.

Hallerberg, M. & de Souza, L.V. (2000). The political business cycles of EU accession countries, European Union Politics, 3(2), 231- 250, doi. 10.1177/1465116502003002005

Hibbs, D.A., (1977). Political parties and macroeconomic policy, The American Political Science Review, 71(4), 1467-1487, doi. 10.2307/1961490

Keech, W.R. (1995), Economic Politics: The Costs of Democracy, New York: Cambridge University Press, doi. 10.1017/ CBO9780511609374

Keynes, J.M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, Volume VII, Royal Economic Society 1978, doi. 10.1017 /UPO9781139524278.001

Klašnja, M., (2008), Electoral rules, forms of government, and political budget cycles in transition countries, Panoeconomicus, 55(2), 185-218, doi. 10.2298/pan0802185k

MacRae, C. (1977), A Political Model of the Business Cycle, Journal of Political Economy, 85(2), 239-63, doi. 10.1086/260561

Maurel, M., (2006), The political business cycles in the EU enlarged, Slovenian Journal for Money and Banking, 55(11), 38-41.

Minford, P. (1988), Interest rates and bond financed deficits in a Ricardian two-party democracy, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 124 (3), 387-402, doi. 10.1007/bf02708655

Mishra, P.K., Das, J.R. & Mishra, S.K. (2010). The dynamics of saving and investment relationship in India, European Journal of Economics, 18(1), 163-172.

Nordhaus, W. D., (1975), The Political Business Cycle, Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169-190, doi. 10.2307/2296528

Obstfeld, M. & Rogoff, K. (1997), Foundations of international macroeconomics, Southern Economic Journal, 64(1), 337-339, doi. 10.2307/1061063

Onafowara, O.A., Owoye, O., & Huart, F. (2011). The temporal relationship between saving and investment: Evidence from advanced EU countries, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(2), 1-12.

Pavelescu, F.M (2009), Savings-investments relationship in an open economy, Romanian Journal of Economics, 29(2-38), 85-106..

Persson, T., & Tabellini, G. (1990). Macroeconomic Policy, Credibility and Politics, London: Harwood Economic Publishers.

Prasad, E.S., Rajan, R.G., & Subramanian, A. (2007). Foreign capital and economic growth, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 38(1), 153–230, doi. 10.1353/eca.2007.0016

Rogoff, K.S., (1990). Equilibrium political budget cycles, American Economic Review, 80(1), 21-36, doi. 10.3386/w2428

Sanjib, B., & Joice, J. (2011), Are saving and investment cointegrated? A cross country analysis, Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 32(1), 41-55

Schneider, B. (1999). Saving-investment correlations and capital mobility in developing countries with special reference to India, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, Working Paper No. 48.

Solow, R.M., (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94, doi. 10.2307/1884513

Tufte, E.R., (1978). Political Control of the Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, doi. 10.1017/s0022050700093712




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1453/jepe.v2i4.501

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Journal of Economics and Political Economy - J. Econ. Pol. Econ. - JEPE - www.kspjournals.org

ISSN: 2148-8347

Editor: [email protected]   Secretarial: [email protected]   Istanbul - Turkey.

Copyright © KSP Library